Press release

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Janice Small 07889 927430

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Janice Small for

Batley & Spen

Risks to homes and firms – as Whitehall plans for power cuts in Batley and Spen

Small print of Government documents forecasts power cuts by 2017

Janice Small, PPC for Batley and Spen this week warned that homes and businesses across Kirklees could be facing power cuts within years. For the first time since the three-day week of the 1970s, consumers will be told to prepare for blackouts, since the supply of electricity will fail to meet demand at peak times.

Over the next few years many power stations will reach the end of their lives, or have to shut because of EU law. But the Government has failed to ensure that replacements are available in time. The small print of Whitehall documents reveal that Ministers have pencilled in power cuts of 3,000 Megawatt hours per year by 2017. This is the equivalent of 670,000 people being without electricity for a day – in other words an area the size of Kirklees and Calderdale.

In practice the blackouts are most likely to strike at peak times – in the early evening during the winter months – hitting many more people for shorter periods when the need for electricity is greatest. The expected gap of 3,000 Megawatt hours could even mean a simultaneous hour-long power cut for 16 million people simultaneously on a winter evening.

Janice said:

“I am extremely concerned that homes and businesses across Kirklees will face blackouts because the Labour Government put its head in the sand about energy policy for a decade. Ministers have been forced to admit they expect the lights to go out for the first time since the three-day week of the 1970s. Energy security is one of the biggest threats facing the UK.

“As a child I remember the three day week and doing my homework by candlelight, we cannot return to that era. Imagine, not having the computer or TV on from 9pm onwards.

“Conservatives will act quickly to tackle Labour’s energy crisis. We will increase generating capacity, improve energy efficiency by insulating people’s homes, adopt the latest green technology and make Britain’s energy policy a matter of national security and I also believe that nuclear has to be a part of that mix, something that has been an unpalatable political football for the past few years.”

Notes to Editors

GOVERNMENT FORECASTS ADMIT POWER CUTS ON WAY

Forecasts of unmet energy demand

The figures come from a chart buried in the back of an “Analytical Annex” to the Government’s Low Carbon Transition Plan, launched with a fanfare in July. The annex projects the level of “Expected Energy Unserved” - the expected shortfall between generating output and consumer demand - from now to 2030. Currently this is close to zero, but the chart shows that by 2017 expected energy unserved it is expected to increase to 3,000 megawatt hours per year. And by 2025 expected energy unserved will soar to over 7,000 megawatt hours per year – equivalent to an hour-long power cut for half of Britain.

Department of Energy & Climate Change, UK Low Carbon Transition Plan - Analytical Annex, July 2009, p. 86

http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/publications/lc_trans_plan/lc_trans_plan.aspx

These power cuts are over and above the demand reductions that large industrial users make in response to temporarily high prices of electricity at these times. They are also additional to the local power cuts that come from the occasional failure of power lines. Expected Energy Unserved is in addition to this – it arises when the demand on the grid cannot be met by power stations.

The modelling is based on a set of assumptions, some of which may be optimistic. The model assumes little or no change in electricity demand to 2020 and it assumes significant extensions are granted to the lifetimes of the UK’s existing nuclear power stations. If the outturn is less favourable than these assumptions, then the blackouts described above will be larger, more frequent and may begin to occur sooner.

The maths

In 2017, our electricity generating capacity is expected to be unable to supply almost 3,000 Megawatt hours of demand, and by 2025 this will have risen to over 7,000 Megawatt hours.

The average household annual electricity use is 4,000 kWh (Ofgem, Wholesale and retail energy prices explained, 2 March 2009). The average household contains 2.44 people (ONS, Regional Trends 38). Therefore the average hourly electricity use of an individual person is 0.187 kWh.

Thus the 2017 level of EEU is equivalent to 667,950 people being without electricity for a day. It is also equivalent to 16 million people being without electricity for an hour. The 2025 level of EEU is equivalent to 37 million people being without electricity for an hour.

CONSERVATIVE POLICIES TO KEEP THE LIGHTS ON

·           Smart grid : A ‘smart grid’ is a more efficient, cost-saving method of moving electricity from where it is produced to the homes and businesses where it is consumed. It involves putting computing intelligence into electricity networks, with sensors at power plants and along power lines and smart meters in people’s homes, so that demand and supply can be intelligently managed. Conservatives will mandate National Grid to develop and operate a ‘smart grid’. Such a grid would make use of intelligent technology to allow customers to save money by using low-cost tariffs for electricity used at times when demand on the grid is lowest and supply is most abundant – a intelligent, modern day version of ‘Economy 7’ tariffs.

·           Smart metering : Smart meters offer electricity customers clearer information about the amount of energy they are using; they can also provide estimates of carbon dioxide emissions and even provide a link to household appliances to show customers which appliances are using the most power. There is evidence to suggest that this kind of information can reduce total demand and also alter the time of day at which demand occurs – offering the potential to deliver savings by reducing the need for investment in new energy infrastructure to meet peak demand. Conservatives will legislate for the extension of smart meters to all gas, electricity and water consumers over the next decade; and to require the immediate provision of smart meters on demand, free of charge to any customer installing micro-generation.

·           ‘Just Do It’ insulation scheme : Reducing the amount of energy we use, especially through energy efficiency measures, is the best single way to improve our energy security position. Conservatives will introduce a new entitlement for every home to be fitted immediately with up to £6,500 of approved energy efficiency improvements, the cost to be repaid through fuel bills over a period of up to 25 years but delivering immediate reductions in the gas and electricity bills of participating households. Our proposal envisages using statutory measures to allow the capital recovery to be attached to the network element of the domestic bill so that in the event of a change of energy supplier, the charge stays with the property, rather than moving with the customer.

·           Home-produced energy : Conservatives will reform Britain’s electricity supply system to allow decentralised energy to play a major role, reducing the UK’s carbon emissions and increasing energy efficiency. Our system of feed-in tariffs will mean that a fixed price is paid for all electricity produced from decentralised, low carbon sources, such as wind power, photovoltaic, combined heat and power, biomass, waste and micro-hydro.

·           Energy security foreign policy : A future Conservative Government would ensure that energy security is a Foreign Office priority. Actions would include supporting greater co-ordination of European energy policy, discouraging bilateral deals with Russia, and developing better relations with energy supplier nations.

·           A national security priority : Conservatives will make energy security a national security priority. To cover the period of immediate insecurity, we would introduce a system of strategic oversight. A new National Security Council would co-ordinate the monitoring of our energy infrastructure – its capacity for fuel supply, fuel storage, power generation, transmission and distribution – with a view to improving its resilience. It would also monitor the foreign policy aspects of energy supply.

  LOCAL FIGURES

The table below lists the current resident population in each local authority area.

Data source: Office of National Statistics, Resident Population Estimates: Mid 2008, 27 August 2009.

In 2017, the forecast level of unmet energy demand (‘EEU’) is equivalent to 670,000 people being without electricity for a day. For example, this is roughly equivalent to the combined population of Amber Valley, Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Blaby, Bolsover, Boston and Broxtowe.