Janice Small: New Year’s predictions and hope for Batley and Spen
“West Yorkshire is the battleground at the next election and the choice for voters is clear: Vote Labour or anything else but Conservative and get Brown again”.
I remain very optimistic about Tory prospects at the next General Election. I think Labour is exhausted, disunited and badly-led. It has wrecked the country's finances. It has presided over a catastrophic loss of confidence in parliamentary standards. Social mobility has collapsed. Anti-social behaviour has exploded. Brown and Blair led our brave military to defeat in southern Iraq.
The Conservatives' opinion poll advantage has been remarkably stable since Brown bottled his autumn 2007 opportunity for a honeymoon election. The Tories have cornered all three ends of Robert Worcester's (MORI opinion polls) iron triangle of political success; (1) our leader is preferred to theirs; (2) we are more trusted with the economy; and (3) we are seen as united. We also have the superior elections machine - outgunning Labour and the Liberals in local government, parliamentary by-elections, web-based activity and in fundraising. However, I am not complacent in Batley and Spen. The voters are making up their minds. They like what we are saying, are fed up with Gordon Brown and are worried about their children’s education and the UK’s bankruptcy. West Yorkshire is the battleground at the next election and the choice for voters is clear: Vote Labour or anything else but Conservative and get Brown again.
The great fact is that government is going to be hellish after the election ( whoever wins). The new government will have to make the deepest cuts that any British political party has ever made.
There'll be no time to relax into the job. There'll need to be an emergency budget to reassure desperately anxious international investors.
Every cut will be opposed by the unions and their £25m war chest. The war chest that they openly admit will be used to fight us every step of the way. Does anyone get a feeling of déjà vu back to the 1970s? It will be Red Robbo and Scargill all over again. I remember doing my homework by candlelight; the rubbish piling up in the street and the dead lying unburied. We cannot go back to those times. In 1979 Margaret Thatcher was elected to mend a broken economy and it’s the same in 2010 but in addition this time we need mend a broken society too. The unions took us on then and they are threatening to do so again. And, this will be the first time cutbacks have been made in the internet age. Every local and national interest group will mobilise online to fight cuts.
Labour's march through the quangocracy will ensure that much of Britain's government will remain under the Left's control even with Tories in charge of Whitehall departments. Left-leaning heads of quangos and charities will lead the opposition to cuts (and they'll be presented as independent minds on the Today programme).
To cut the size of the state without a clear electoral mandate in these circumstances will be a very risky enterprise even if The Mail, Telegraph and Tory base rallies to the cause. So voters, we need your votes, we cannot risk a hung Parliament. Remember, we are ring-fencing NHS and education spending.
There is an additional constitutional reason for securing a mandate. If elected, David Cameron's government will be the first Conservative government not to have a majority in the Lords. The Lords will be much more likely to block measures that weren't signalled in the manifesto. Again, Lords’ Reform needs to be put firmly back on the agenda with an eighty per cent elected Upper House.
The extent to which David Cameron seeks a mandate as well as a majority at the next General Election remains the big strategic choice. I am glad that David has led the call for a TV debate against Brown. We do need a 'TV moment' where David is unambiguous about the pain ahead. David and George Osborne need to be able to say that they warned the country that they would do these difficult things and they are now doing them. The message should be framed as necessary to put Britain back on track; 'We are going through a tunnel but there is a great future for Britain at the end of that tunnel'. We need a clip from David that will be replayed on TV in the years to come as the truth-telling moment when David made it clear what was coming. Our austerity message needs to be infused with special measures to help the very poorest.
So, here’s to 2010 and a General Election. I do hope the people of Batley and Spen send a resounding message to Labour and Gordon Brown and vote Conservative whenever that election may be called. It will be a hard fought election, notwithstanding the bias in the electoral system, which means that we have to be 10 points ahead to even secure a majority of one. So, every vote counts and we will not take your votes for granted.
David Cameron will almost certainly be prime minister and I do hope with all my heart that I am sitting with him to get this country back on its feet, to put the Great back into Great Britain and to mend our broken society. But that’s up to the voters of Batley and Spen. I promise to use my vote in Parliament at every opportunity, to raise many questions on your behalf – even though it may be uncomfortable for my government - and represent you as an MP, as a legislator, and not abuse your trust in terms of expenses or time spent in Parliament. If I don’t vote, raise questions and take part in debates then I will not be doing my job properly.
Best wishes everyone and a Happy New Year.
Janice
Promoted by Maurice Cook, Spring Villa, 16a Church Lane, Brighouse, HD6 1AT
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